← 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT
Fire EruptingTier 1
at 2024/04/27 Taiwan Regionals by.GtCT
decks
5
(5.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
32
16-13-3
overall winrate
54.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.6%
avg ELO +3.8 per match
expected value
50.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1325
· median 1312
· range 1171–1477
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1043
Q1 1173
Q3 1390
1685
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.4% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 59.9% | +6.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.0% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +2.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 45.0% | -3.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 10.9% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 64.2% | +7.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 63.0% | +9.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 40.9% | -6.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.1% | +16.4 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
